Humanoid Robots Enter Critical Industrialization Phase
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At the beginning of 2024, humanoid robots continue to gain momentum and are considered the next disruptive product after computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles, poised to drive a vast blue ocean market. Recently, with the support of AI large models, domestic and international companies have been continuously updating their progress in humanoid robot development.
Industry insiders indicate that humanoid robots are at a critical juncture transitioning from laboratories to industrialization. Against the backdrop of industrial capital competing for layout and the continuous iteration of generative AI large model technology, coupled with policy incentives, 2024 is expected to be the first year of mass production for humanoid robots.
Industrialization expectations gradually clarify
Recently, Tesla shared a new video of its humanoid robot Optimus on social media, showcasing smoother walking capabilities, which sparked widespread reposts and discussions. Since the beginning of this year, Tesla has released multiple videos related to Optimus, and from these videos, it can be seen that the performance of humanoid robots has been continuously iterating and upgrading in just a few weeks.
Tesla first announced the Optimus project in August 2021, which aims to help humans complete dangerous, highly repetitive, and tedious tasks, with the first batch of mass-produced versions to be used in Tesla factories. On January 25 this year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated during an earnings call that humanoid robots will begin shipping in 2024. In China, domestic humanoid robot manufacturer Ubtech recently released a video showing its Walker S robot entering NIO's factory for an "internship," making the future of humanoid robots in practical application scenarios more visible.
The clear progress in humanoid robots has attracted continuous attention from capital to the A-share robotics sector. CITIC Securities (21.630, +0.17, +0.79%) stated in a research report that the humanoid robot concept is heating up, mainly due to improved expectations for Tesla's humanoid robot supply chain progress, AI giants igniting innovation in robotics technology, and ongoing policy and manufacturer support. Additionally, eased liquidity conditions have provided favorable conditions for the sector's rebound.
CITIC Securities Construction stated in a research report that humanoid robots have broad application scenarios and serve as a powerful complement to industrial robots and other automation equipment. Their global market potential could reach trillions of yuan, comparable to 3C and new energy vehicles.
According to Musk's predictions, if the ratio of humanoid robots to humans reaches 2:1 in the future, the demand for humanoid robots could reach 10-20 billion units. Human demand for humanoid robots might even far exceed that for cars.
Goldman Sachs believes that, under ideal conditions, the humanoid robot market could reach $154 billion by 2035, close to one-third of the global electric vehicle and smartphone markets in 2022.
Strong Policy Support A set of data highlights China's potential and strength in the robotics field.
The 2023 World Robotics Report shows that in 2022, China installed 290,000 industrial robots, a 5% year-on-year increase, accounting for 52% of global installations. This marks the tenth consecutive year China has been the world's largest consumer market for industrial robots. Industrial robots are now applied across 65 major industries and 206 sub-industries, with widespread use in automotive, electronics, and machinery sectors, and rapid expansion in emerging fields like new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics.
Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) reveals that from January to October 2023, China's robotics industry achieved revenues exceeding 130 billion yuan, a 9.3% year-on-year growth. The total import and export value of robotics products reached $2.66 billion, up 23% year-on-year. Industrial robot production reached 353,000 units, while service robot production hit 6.436 million units, reflecting a robust development momentum in the robotics industry.
Currently, humanoid robots have become a focal point of global industrial competition amid the new wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation. The Chinese government places high importance on the development of humanoid robots, with numerous supportive policies being introduced.
On January 29, seven departments, including MIIT and the Ministry of Science and Technology, released the Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovative Development of Future Industries. The document highlights the need to create iconic products and strengthen high-end future equipment, with humanoid robots listed as the top priority.
The Opinions explicitly state the need to break through core technologies such as high-torque-density servo motors for robots, high-dynamic motion planning and control, bionic perception and cognition, intelligent dexterous hands, and electronic skin. It emphasizes advancing the development and application of products in fields like smart manufacturing, home services, and operations in special environments. In October 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued documents such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for Robot Industry Development" and the "Guidance on Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots". The latter, as the first standalone policy document comprehensively outlining strategic plans for humanoid robots, emphasizes that by 2025, an initial innovation system for humanoid robots should be established. Breakthroughs are expected in key technologies such as the "brain, cerebellum, and limbs," ensuring safe and effective supply of core components. The goal is to achieve internationally advanced levels in complete products, achieve mass production, and demonstrate applications in special, manufacturing, and public service scenarios, while exploring effective governance mechanisms. Additionally, the plan aims to cultivate 2-3 globally influential ecosystem enterprises and a group of specialized and innovative SMEs, establish 2-3 industrial development clusters, and foster new businesses, models, and formats.
"On one hand, China's aging population is gradually becoming apparent, leading to a long-term shortage of labor supply, urgently requiring humanoid robots to fill the gap and meet future production and living needs," said Sun Xin, Director of Industrial Innovation Research at the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology's Policy and Economics Research Institute. "On the other hand, harsh and dangerous working environments in special industries continue to threaten workers' lives and health, while repetitive and heavy workloads wear down their spirits, increasing the demand for humanoid robot replacements."
Zhou Jian, Chairman of Ubtech, recently stated that Chinese companies have secured a place in the global humanoid robot industry. The company has broken through and accumulated full-stack technologies for humanoid robots, including leading-edge robotics, AI, robotics-AI integration, and robot operating system application frameworks. It has also pioneered the mass production of servo drives ranging from small to high torque (0.2Nm to 200Nm), meeting the demand for core components in autonomous robot innovation. Based on the number of valid patents held by applicants, Ubtech ranks first globally in humanoid robot patent reserves, surpassing companies like Honda, Sony, and Toyota.
Industrialization Process Accelerates The advancement of generative AI model technology has greatly accelerated the evolution of humanoid robots. By embedding large models into robot bodies, it opens up numerous new possibilities for robots to achieve breakthroughs in autonomous thinking and execution, moving toward the stage of embodied intelligence.
In October 2023, iFLYTEK's humanoid robot product made its official debut, marking the industry's first embodied intelligent humanoid robot integrated with a large AI model. According to reports, with the support of the Spark large model, the robot's accuracy in decomposing complex tasks and success rate in recognizing objects in open scenarios have steadily improved. Ji Chao, Director of Robot Products at iFLYTEK's Hardware Center, stated that with the advent of the "singularity" in general AI and the continuous reduction in robot hardware costs, humanoid robots are expected to enter households on a large scale.
Lu Pei, Head of the Machinery Sector at Galaxy Securities, commented: "The rapid development of multimodal large models will enhance the intelligence level of humanoid robots and accelerate their industrialization process. 2024 may become the first year of mass production."
Industry insiders noted that humanoid robots are at a critical juncture transitioning from laboratory research to industrialization.
Enterprises in the industrial chain have already recognized this signal of accelerated commercialization and are speeding up their base layouts. In August 2023, Xiaomi Robotics announced a 2 billion yuan investment to establish a general-purpose humanoid robot innovation demonstration project in Beijing's Yizhuang. The project aims to develop commercial mass-produced humanoid robots, overcome key technologies and core hardware/software components, build simulation verification and reinforcement learning training platforms, and demonstrate innovative applications in typical manufacturing scenarios like 3C and automotive factories to accelerate the construction of a humanoid robot industrial ecosystem.
In early 2024, Sanhua Intelligent Controls (25.420, -0.18, -0.70%) signed an agreement with Hangzhou Qiantang New District Management Committee, planning a total investment of no less than 5 billion yuan for an intelligent frequency conversion controller production base project and a robotics electromechanical actuator/domain controller R&D and production base. Top Group also announced plans to invest 5 billion yuan to build a robotics core component production base in Ningbo Economic Development Zone.
Domestic humanoid robot financing activities have become more active. Recently, robotics company Unitree Robotics completed nearly 1 billion yuan in Series B2 financing from investors including Meituan, Jinshi, and Source Code Capital. Unitree has two product series: quadruped robots and general-purpose humanoid robots, showcasing its H1 humanoid robot at CES 2024 in January. According to Tianyancha data, China has seen over 50 humanoid robot-related financing events totaling more than 12 billion yuan, with Guangdong (19 events), Jiangsu (10 events), and Shanghai (9 events) being the most active regions.