Microsoft's Arrogance and Prejudice - The Root Causes of Cortana's Failure

[baoshi.rao]

Today, using voice commands to wake up smart assistants is no longer an awkward experience as it once was. The booming 'smart speaker wars' have even brought AI to remote villages, making voice interaction ubiquitous. With voice interaction habits now well-established, it's prime time for innovation and storytelling. Yet, amid this favorable landscape, Microsoft's voice assistant Cortana has announced plans to 'go solo,' discontinuing services on iOS and Android platforms—a move tantamount to self-sabotage.

What legacy does Cortana leave behind in the voice interaction field? And where will its creators steer their course after losing dominance in the mobile space and bidding farewell to this critical gateway of smart voice assistants?

Most users today may never have had a chance to interact with Cortana on their phones. On PCs, summoning Cortana is often accidental. But this doesn’t mean Cortana, named after the AI character from the FPS game Halo, was ever mediocre.

In fact, Microsoft’s AI capabilities rival those of Google and Apple. Backed by Microsoft Research Asia (specializing in AI and speech recognition), Cortana was far smarter than Siri at launch. In one demo, when asked 'How tall is the Eiffel Tower?', Cortana combined knowledge graphs with AI to skip irrelevant search results and deliver the answer directly—years ahead of its peers.

Moreover, Microsoft Research Asia’s extensive work on Chinese speech recognition and semantic analysis gave Cortana an edge. At the time, Siri struggled with basic Chinese comprehension, often serving as little more than a joke-telling novelty. Beyond technical prowess, Cortana’s intelligence stemmed from its pivotal role in Microsoft’s 'cloud-first, mobile-first' strategy.

Cortana, alongside Bing and Azure, was poised to replace Office and Windows as Microsoft’s new core in the mobile era. Microsoft invested heavily in refining Cortana, positioning it as a 'smart assistant' capable of handling complex voice commands—opening apps, finding files, managing emails, etc. By 2016, its speech recognition surpassed human accuracy. In 2018, Microsoft even acquired an AI startup, Semantic Machines, to make Cortana’s responses more natural. Truly, it enjoyed top-tier treatment.

Cortana’s vision remains forward-thinking even today. Designed as cloud-driven, it offloaded heavy computation to the cloud, enabling lightweight integration across devices. Microsoft engineers envisioned 'Cortana Everywhere'—seamless operation across diverse devices and OSes, as long as they could run its client stack. The minimal device capable of running Cortana was a smartband, like Microsoft Band, where it could process voice inputs and display text responses.

One product leader painted this futuristic scenario: 'A jacket with a built-in mic relays my voice to my phone, which communicates with the cloud. The user never needs to take out the phone—just hear Cortana’s reply through earbuds.' Sound familiar? Cloud + AI + ubiquitous devices—a vision now commonplace in tech conferences—was sketched by Microsoft years ago.

(Cortana on Microsoft Band)

Alas, every story has a 'but.' Cortana’s journey ended in tragedy. Microsoft recently announced strategic downsizing, discontinuing Cortana on iOS and Android by January 2021—an official death sentence. Earlier, CEO Satya Nadella had already declared Cortana non-competitive against Alexa and Google Assistant. How did Cortana, once a protagonist, become collateral damage?

Hindsight offers clarity. Cortana’s misfortunes hinged on three critical missteps:

1. Task-Centric Limitations: A voice assistant’s core function is solving specific needs by controlling devices and apps. While Cortana excelled within Microsoft’s ecosystem (e.g., managing emails, Office 365), its reach was confined mostly to PCs, where voice took a backseat to keyboards. In mobile, Windows Phone’s dismal market share barred Cortana from deep hardware integration like Siri or Google Assistant. Features like 'Hey Cortana' wake-up or low-power always-on listening were unattainable on rival devices.

2. Data Starvation: Without widespread user adoption, Cortana lacked behavioral data to refine its intelligence, widening the gap with competitors. Microsoft’s mobile failures sealed Cortana’s fate.

3. Timing and Infrastructure: At launch, voice interaction felt awkward—like making small talk with distant relatives. Even today, many smart speakers gather dust. Worse, Cortana debuted when device compute power and mobile networks were unreliable. Delays or failures in voice recognition were common. Now, as users embrace voice commands, Cortana is outmatched in a cutthroat market.

Today’s voice assistant players agree: success hinges on openness and collaboration to foster user engagement. Microsoft’s insular, empire-building mindset may well be Cortana’s epitaph.

In 2014, when Amazon's "Alexa+Echo" model (now widely emulated by smart assistants) was still in its experimental stage, Amazon established Alexa Voice Services to openly invite developers to create Alexa-compatible hardware and software - from chandeliers to refrigerators, gas stoves to cars. Though many implementations seemed silly even by today's standards, this open approach undoubtedly contributed to Alexa becoming the world's most widely used voice assistant with over 15,000 skills.

That same year, when asked about Cortana's potential expansion beyond Windows Phone, Microsoft executive Marcus Ash stated the company would only consider other platforms after perfecting the Windows Phone version, ruling out deep integration with iOS or Android. Not until 2015, when Windows Phone's dismal market performance became undeniable, did Microsoft finally announce Cortana's expansion to Android and iOS - albeit limited to just China and the US markets.

Meanwhile in China, Baidu had already launched "Duer," combining elements of Microsoft's Xiaoice (chatbot), Cortana (voice assistant), Bing (search engine), and vertical O2O services into one voice interaction product. Soon after, Duer's capabilities were opened to developers through the DuerOS platform.

Microsoft's "arrogance and prejudice" toward open ecosystems caused Cortana to miss its chance to establish consumer roots and evolve. In 2018, Microsoft attempted reinvigorating Cortana on Android and iOS with major updates including a refreshed UI, 20% faster startup, Bluetooth music playback, and deeper integration with services like Skype meetings.

Yet whether facing Chinese tech giants' voice assistants or competing globally against Google, Amazon and Apple, Cortana couldn't overcome its disadvantages in hardware ecosystem scale and platform extensibility. At Build 2018, Microsoft's demonstration of Cortana-Alexa interoperability tacitly acknowledged Cortana's inability to meet modern voice assistant demands. By January 2019, Cortana-centered smart speaker plans were scrapped.

Cortana's eventual exit seems almost anticlimactic given its dismal performance - ranking just 254th in Apple's App Store productivity category and 145th on Google Play. What began as a promising start ultimately faltered as Microsoft prioritized Windows and Office over mobile.

Though Cortana has faded from mobile, voice interaction remains a crucial future interface. Microsoft indicates Cortana will persist as its sole voice assistant across Windows products including Xbox, making one last attempt at relevance.

Whether Cortana can regain prominence remains uncertain, but Microsoft's "Waterloo" demonstrates that in AI-driven interaction revolutions, critical battles often occur beyond pure technology.

After the "thousand smart speakers skirmish," voice interaction warfare across smart devices - from cars to smart homes to offices - is just beginning. While winners' formulas may not be replicable, losers' lessons prove invaluable.

As voice interaction reshapes information ecosystems and lifestyles through complex social chains, even giants like Microsoft stumble. What's clear is that building collaborative industry ecosystems is paramount.

With voice technology nearing performance ceilings (competing over decimal-point improvements beyond 90% accuracy), establishing end-to-end industry partnerships in 5G+AIoT ecosystems becomes strategically crucial for future market dominance.

Secondly, as global competition intensifies, Chinese manufacturers' local advantages will amplify. Google Assistant data shows over 70% of internet queries now use natural language. While each player has strengths, user experience remains the ultimate differentiator. Chinese tech firms that first capture usage time in lower-tier markets will gain decisive mindshare in the "voice+everything" arena.

Beyond smart speaker innovations, China's voice interaction battlefield will see new hardware forms driving genuine consumer market transformation.

Ultimately, Cortana's greatest lesson may be this: Don't let corporate arrogance and prejudice suffocate AI's vitality through isolation.