Explosive Growth of AI Robots: When Will Mass Production Be Achieved?
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Unbelievable! Huawei dares to challenge the entire Silicon Valley tech circle single-handedly! Taking on Apple and Tesla! Recently, following Huawei phones, Huawei cars, and Huawei Ascend chips, Huawei has quietly accomplished another major feat, one that could disrupt a trillion-dollar industry!
That is the recent launch of the world's first humanoid robot equipped with Huawei's HarmonyOS, the KaihongOS. This robot is based on an intelligent interconnected system for humanoid robots, featuring 17 degrees of freedom, dual cameras, and two computing systems. The open-source HarmonyOS version also supports graphical programming and high-level programming languages to meet various programming needs.
The news immediately sent shockwaves through the global tech community! It's worth noting that the cost of humanoid robots is far lower than that of cars, yet their applications are incredibly diverse, with demand potentially surpassing that of automobiles! As a result, institutions are unanimously optimistic, viewing this as a market far surpassing the automotive industry, with a potential scale exceeding $1.6 trillion.
Besides Huawei, the domestic AI company DeepBlue Technology also officially unveiled its latest innovation at the "2023 Channel Construction Conference"—the world's first large-model wheel-legged household AI robot. This robot possesses autonomous consciousness, capable of interacting and chatting with humans, answering questions, assessing health conditions, and offering personal life advice. It can accompany the elderly for shopping, assist children with learning, plan travel itineraries, check flight statuses, and provide reminders...
Similarly, companies like Xiaomi, Xpeng, and iFlytek have successively released AI robots and shared their R&D progress, making this field quite lively.
To be precise, the term "robot (ROBOT)" first appeared in the 1920 play R.U.R. (Rossum's Universal Robots) by Czech writer Karel Čapek. Its original meaning was a worker, laborer, or human assistant, and it has only been around for a century.
Although the term "ROBOT" emerged in the 20th century, humanity's dream of creating "robots" has persisted for thousands of years. As early as the Warring States period, the Taoist philosopher Lie Yukou described in Liezi·Tang Wen a "mechanical performer" presented by the craftsman Yan Shi to King Mu of Zhou, which likely represents the earliest Chinese understanding of "robots." This shows that the Chinese people's exploration and pursuit of robots have existed since ancient times and have never ceased.
Since the new century, with the rapid development of China's emerging tech industries like the internet, big data, and cloud computing, as well as the rapid expansion of the national digital economy, China's robotics industry has entered a period of concentrated growth. Especially since the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the government's emphasis on AI technology innovation, application scenarios, and commercialization, robots—as the primary carriers of AI—have seen significant performance improvements, and the robotics industry as a whole has shown strong development momentum.
From a market perspective, according to the "China Robotics Industry Development Report (2022)" released during the 2022 World Robot Conference, the global robotics industry market size is expected to reach $51.3 billion by the end of 2022, with China's market size accounting for $17.4 billion, representing approximately 33.9% of the global share. The industry has maintained an average annual growth rate of 22% over five years, indicating overall positive development prospects.
At the main forum of the 2022 World Robot Conference, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, explicitly pointed out that in recent years, sectors such as core component collaborative robots and surgical robots have become focal points for China's robotics industry and hotspots for social capital attention.
From the financing market perspective, companies currently receiving funding are primarily distributed in humanoid robots, service robots, and industrial robots. Among them, companies like Zhuji Power, Leishen Intelligence, and Tianchuang Robotics have completed large financing rounds exceeding 100 million yuan each, with total financing amounts surpassing 500 million yuan.
Additionally, according to incomplete statistics from China Robotics Network, between August and September 2023 alone, there were 42 financing events in the robotics field, with disclosed total financing exceeding 2 billion yuan. Notably, this statistic only includes domestic companies focused on robotics and related applications, such as Gaoxian and Weilan, while diversified AI companies like the "AI Four Dragons" and DeepBlue Technology are not included in this count.
Evidently, driven by market demand and policy guidance, China's robotics industry has maintained vibrant investment activities, initially establishing a development pattern where industry and capital interact dynamically, leading to rapid industry expansion.
Currently, as China transitions into a high-quality development phase, building a modern economic system and creating a new vision for a better life urgently requires strong support from emerging industries and technologies. With the accelerated evolution of a new round of technological revolution, bolstered by advancements in AI, bio-intelligence, and other new technologies, the robotics industry is entering a critical window for technological upgrades and leapfrog development.
At present, domestic robotics products are broadly categorized into two types based on their applications: industrial (for production) and service (for daily life). Industrial robots primarily serve as crucial carriers of emerging technologies and key equipment in modern industries, playing an empowering role in leading industrial digitization and the intelligent upgrading of traditional industries. Due to their specialized application scenarios, these robots have limited relevance to the average consumer.
On the other hand, service robots emerge as tools for daily human life and assistants in addressing population aging. These robots directly interact with the general public, providing various services to individuals or families to enhance quality of life.
In terms of industrial scale, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2021, China's industrial robot production reached 366,000 units, a 68% increase from the previous year; service robot production reached 9.214 million units, a 47% year-on-year growth. This indicates that service robots account for the vast majority in terms of production volume.
When categorized by application scenarios, service robots can be broadly divided into commercial and household types. Commercial robots primarily serve as service tools in public spaces, such as delivery robots, customer service robots, and autonomous driving robots. Household robots mainly appear as home appliances, with application scenarios concentrated in domestic settings, where many smart appliances can also be classified as robots.
Focusing specifically on household robots, they can be further divided into functional robots and companion AI robots based on application scenarios. Currently, the robots that have successfully entered the market and dominate market share are mostly functional robots, such as robotic vacuum cleaners, lawn mowing robots, and disinfection robots.
This demonstrates that China's current robotics market, excluding production-oriented robots, is primarily concentrated in two major areas: commercial robots and household functional robots, where market competition is intense. In contrast, household companion AI robot products are relatively scarce, representing an untapped blue ocean market. For example, the wheel-legged household AI robot launched by DeepBlue Technology, as mentioned earlier, falls into this category.
On November 2, 2023, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) officially issued the "Guiding Opinions on Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots" (hereinafter referred to as the "Opinions"). This document represents the most significant policy globally to date regarding humanoid robotics development.
Unlike industrial robots that emphasize "industrial" functions, humanoid robots are designed to be more "human-like" in functionality and application. They must not only perform mechanical tasks but, more importantly, possess AI capabilities such as autonomous perception and intelligent interaction. This signifies that the transition from industrial robots to humanoid robots involves not just morphological differences but a technological paradigm shift.
Huang Xiaoqing, founder and CEO of CloudMinds, commented: "This is the first time any government has introduced a comprehensive top-level design document with holistic planning, clear objectives, practical measures, and detailed implementation guidelines specifically focused on advancing the humanoid robotics industry."
The industry anticipates that under this policy guidance, humanoid robots will soon enter a rapid development phase and ultimately emerge as the next disruptive "super blue ocean" market, following computers, smartphones, and new energy vehicles.
In the tide of the times, what often determines fate is not resources or capabilities, but concepts and directions.
Over the past year or two, global players, including AI companies and tech firms, have rushed into the humanoid robot sector, launching related products. For instance, in August and September 2022, Xiaomi and Tesla respectively unveiled their bipedal robots, 'CyberOne' and 'Optimus'. Earlier this year, Norwegian robotics company 1X Technologies introduced 'EVE', a robot with two arms, two eyes, and a four-wheeled chassis, and plans to collaborate with OpenAI to apply generative AI technology for robot upgrades. In August, Zhiyuan Robotics also released 'Expedition A1', a bipedal robot integrated with the WorkGPT AI model, capable of autonomous perception.
Most recently, at the end of October, DeepBlue Technology officially launched 'Lanbao', a wheel-legged home AI robot equipped with a silicon-based knowledge model. According to insiders, 'Lanbao' can continuously grow through user interaction, developing its own judgment, logical thinking, and habits. With specific algorithms, it can navigate complex terrains like speed bumps, stairs, and slopes with human-like agility and flexibility.
It is reported that at the 2023 World Robot Conference held on August 16, no fewer than 10 companies, including Ubtech, CloudMinds, Dreame, and Unitree, publicly showcased their humanoid robot products, indicating the sector is on the verge of explosive growth.
As Chen Haibo, founder and chairman of DeepBlue Tech, stated during the launch of "Lanbao," the future belongs to an era of human-machine coexistence and to enterprises that effectively utilize artificial intelligence. "Machines" are tools and equipment, focusing on scalability and precision, while "humans" represent artificial intelligence, emphasizing thought and individuality. Whether robots are viewed as "machines" or "humans" will not only determine the development path of robotic products but also shape the ultimate direction of a company's growth.
He further pointed out that the target customer base of an AI company from the outset determines whether robots are perceived as "machines" or "humans." As a company long focused on both B2B and B2C users, DeepBlue's AI robot product "Lanbao" was developed from the beginning as a "human." The integration of mature large-model technology and a hardware-software collaborative R&D approach not only anchors a human-centric robot development path but also serves as a key benchmark for evaluating a company's robotic R&D capabilities.
At the iFlytek Global 1024 Developer Festival on October 24 this year, iFlytek not only released the Spark Cognitive Large Model V3.0 but also introduced a humanoid robot combining large models with embodied intelligence. Founder Liu Qingfeng stated that this humanoid robot, based on the AIBOT robot superbrain platform released last year, integrates cognitive intelligence, motion intelligence, and multimodal perception capabilities of embodied intelligence. This equips the humanoid robot with advanced abilities such as walking on complex terrains, searching for objects in open scenarios, and decomposing complex tasks.
Next, they plan to use humanoid robots as a driving force to advance the multimodal embodied large model of "vision-language-action," further enhancing the intellectual capabilities of robots.
Indeed, the global robotics industry is flourishing, profoundly transforming human production and lifestyles and injecting strong momentum into economic and social development. In China, with the official release of the Guidance on the Innovative Development of Humanoid Robots by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the entire AI robotics industry is set to experience a surge in growth, riding the "east wind" of opportunity. Companies with deep learning, large-scale models, and embodied intelligence technologies are continuously striving for breakthroughs, propelling the AI-powered robotics revolution toward a "singularity moment."
Of course, while the trend is overwhelmingly positive, the challenges are equally unprecedented. Currently, the core technologies of AI robotics still face certain limitations, such as high barriers to system integration, difficulties in algorithm development, lack of evolutionary capabilities, challenges in hardware selection and adaptation, and an incomplete upstream and downstream ecosystem. These issues constrain the full potential of robotic productivity.
At the same time, AI robotics involves extensive data collection and processing, raising higher demands for data security and privacy protection. Its widespread adoption and application will inevitably touch on legal and ethical issues. For society as a whole, the ability to refine relevant laws and ethical guidelines to ensure social stability and protect human rights presents a challenge that cannot be ignored.
However, confronting these problems head-on is the best path to finding solutions. We should remain optimistic about the development of AI robotics in China—after all, even challenges as daunting as semiconductor technology have been overcome.