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  3. The AI Power Game Reveals Several Major Transformations in the Future AI Industry
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The AI Power Game Reveals Several Major Transformations in the Future AI Industry

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  • baoshi.raoB Offline
    baoshi.raoB Offline
    baoshi.rao
    wrote on last edited by
    #1

    The dramatic events that unfolded over the past weekend will likely become an unforgettable moment when looking back at 2023—the board of the star tech company OpenAI 'ambushed' and fired its CEO, Sam Altman.

    However, less than 48 hours after this surprise move, Altman posted a selfie on his personal X account, indicating his return to the company. Reports suggest he has begun negotiations with OpenAI's board, proposing that several prominent tech executives lead a new board to better align with his business vision.

    Just as everyone thought he would stage a 'triumphant return,' the situation took another turn. On November 20, OpenAI announced that Altman would not be returning. Meanwhile, Emmett Shear, the former CEO of game streaming platform Twitch, was appointed interim CEO.

    Less than two hours after this announcement, Microsoft Chairman and CEO Satya Nadella directly posted on X that Microsoft would hire Altman and Brockman to lead a new advanced AI research team at Microsoft, effectively putting an end to this tumultuous weekend single-handedly.

    图源:X.com

    随后OpenAI现存770名员工里有743人签署了一封联名信,表态Sam Altman不回归他们就会辞职,要知道该公司全职员工也不过770人。

    目前来看,OpenAI和Altman本身的博弈对抗大概率还会持续一段时间,然而这一事件对于整个AI领域的影响显然才刚刚开始。

    OpenAI's high-profile yet poor corporate governance is inevitably causing discontent among core employees, potentially disrupting the existing balance of AI talent.

    Furthermore, Altman's departure has been interpreted as reflecting his more permissive than controlled attitude towards AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), and this strategic divergence is no longer a secret, especially as GPT-5.0 may achieve more groundbreaking performance.

    More importantly, if OpenAI, the former frontrunner, begins to stagnate, competition in the AI field may enter another white-hot phase, potentially involving more radical players, with uncertain consequences for the future of human society.

    就在微软宣布Altman和Brockman将会加入之后,一大批OpenAI的核心员工纷纷在X上发布一句话:“OpenAI is nothing without its people.” (没有了这些人,OpenAI什么都不是)。其中甚至包括参与了这场突袭,只担任了一天临时CEO的首席技术官Mira Murati。

    毫无疑问,不论外界如何评价Altman其人,但他在OpenAI员工心目中的地位可想而知。

    从目前的情况来看,部分核心员工离职追随Altman只是时间问题。

    Sam Altman

    Andrej Karpathy, the OpenAI co-founder who recently returned to the company, stated on X: "The board had the opportunity to explain their drastic actions, but they failed to seize it. So there's nothing more to say beyond how it appears." As the former head of Tesla's AI division and considered one of OpenAI's technical pillars, his potential departure could inflict immeasurable damage to the company's technological advancement.

    In fact, within 24 hours of Altman's forced resignation, numerous core employees declared they would quit if he didn't return. This became another critical force—alongside investors—pushing OpenAI's board back to negotiations. Now that talks have collapsed, many are unlikely to stay, especially since OpenAI alumni face no shortage of attractive job offers in Silicon Valley.

    Nvidia's senior AI scientist Jim Fan promptly pinned his public recruitment email on X, openly inviting OpenAI engineers, researchers, and product teams to join Nvidia. Salesforce's CEO even personally stepped in to recruit talent...

    Recruitment efforts intensify amid OpenAI turmoil

    Image Source: X.com

    Meanwhile, applications to Google's DeepMind AI lab have surged over the past two days. With Altman's confirmed departure, not just Nvidia and Google, but tech giants like Meta and Amazon that have made substantial investments in AI are likely to openly or covertly join the talent war.

    Even Chinese AI companies may indirectly benefit from this opportunity, as such a large-scale migration of core AI talent would rarely occur under normal circumstances.

    The mastermind behind OpenAI's sudden move is Ilya Sutskever, who is himself a core researcher, technical developer, and board member of the company, having led many of OpenAI's major breakthroughs.

    According to various messages circulating on X, Ilya pushed the board to remove Altman and Brockman, primarily due to his strong discomfort with Altman and his close associates' increasingly aggressive external financing and commercialization efforts. He believed this deviated from OpenAI's original intention as a non-profit organization. Additionally, Ilya thought Altman did not genuinely care about the safety issues and ethical challenges posed by artificial intelligence.

    Prior to this, tensions had been brewing for a long time among OpenAI's leadership regarding whether AI was being developed safely.

    Image Source: Internet

    This ideological conflict is also known as the debate between 'accelerationists' and 'alignment advocates.'

    The former, as techno-optimists, believe that all current problems can be solved through technological progress, and AI is no exception. Thus, they advocate for rapid development at all costs. The latter, however, are more fearful of the potentially devastating consequences of strong artificial intelligence. After all, a series of sci-fi movies, starting with The Terminator, have made this issue abundantly clear. They argue that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) with autonomous consciousness should not be made public until sufficiently robust safeguards are in place, to avoid irreversible damage.

    The current 'coup' has evidently brought this internal corporate debate into the open.

    It may be difficult to judge which side is right or wrong, but one thing is certain: this will remain an unavoidable topic in the future development of AI. This not only means that technological evolution must consider commercial prospects but also raises the ultimate challenge of how to regulate and prevent AI from spiraling out of control. After all, no one wants to be the one responsible for leading human society to its demise.

    Despite GPT 4.0's significant lead, OpenAI, after this round of internal strife, is unlikely to continue stable technological iteration and product innovation as before.

    The loss of talent is one aspect; without Altman's strong fundraising capabilities and a dismissive attitude towards commercialization, the organization may soon face survival challenges.

    Currently, Microsoft appears to be the biggest winner. Although its $10 billion investment in OpenAI might go to waste, acquiring Altman and Brockman could naturally attract a wave of OpenAI-related talent to join voluntarily. Combined with Microsoft's own AI foundation, it's entirely possible to internally incubate an OpenAI 2.0.

    Microsoft's potential gain

    Greg Brockman (left) Sam Altman (right)

    Google and Meta are certainly pleased with OpenAI's unexpected stumble, as they are both eager to catch up with Microsoft in the AI race. After this sudden turmoil began affecting OpenAI's daily operations, many of OpenAI's clients have already started looking for alternatives, as no one wants their services to suddenly shut down due to company management issues.

    However, the latest news is that OpenAI's board is still struggling and attempting to reach out to direct competitor Anthropic for a potential merger. Anthropic is directly backed by Amazon, which means that although OpenAI may lose a significant amount of talent, merging its patents and technology into another AI startup supported by a tech giant could still secure human and computational resources.

    It can be said that the entire AI industry is currently in a state of chaos. Most importantly, if OpenAI becomes mediocre, the position of industry leader will naturally become a coveted prize for all. From this perspective, the market may witness even more intense advancements in AI technology and commercialization over the next six months to a year.

    Image Source: Internet

    In any case, this "palace intrigue" unfolding for the sake of AI will only make the development of AI more formidable. Sooner or later, the spectators watching the drama will inevitably become part of the show themselves.

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