Seizing AI Now Means Capturing the Dividends of Development for the Next 30 Years
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The Industrial Revolution brought a 30-year golden age to human society, driving comprehensive development in economy, technology, and culture. Although we missed witnessing the last golden 30 years, we are fortunate to stand at the dawn of the next one. The digital revolution enables humanity to scale the replication of knowledge and experience, leading to a complete transformation of markets and society.
As Wang Yiquan said, we are in the 'Internet moment of AI.' Becoming a participant in the digital revolution, rather than a bystander, presents a rare development opportunity.
Wang Yiquan (Founding Partner of Haiyin Capital and global expert in technological innovation industries) and Lao Yu (host of 'Lonely Brain') discussed in a live broadcast the historical conditions, development trends, and application directions of AI. They also explored AI's impact on future industrial structures, education, and ordinary people.
Below are the key takeaways from their discussion:
ChatGPT has ushered in a new wave of technological innovation, similar to trends seen at different stages of internet development. From the early BBS era to the rise of BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) and the wireless internet era, the pattern has largely remained the same: starting with initial exploration of technological capabilities and gradually transitioning into an application-driven phase.
In the early stages, people are often excited about the technology, but practical applications remain limited and require further development, often manifesting as minor improvements in technical capabilities.
During the internet era, technological advancements focused on connectivity. In the wireless internet era, numerous applications emerged, offering various services such as faster download speeds. While enthusiasm for new technologies remains high, we are still in the exploratory phase.
After a period of minor technical tweaks, new technologies begin to shift toward being truly application-driven. Innovations that genuinely meet user needs drive large-scale development, a pattern evident in past technological waves and still applicable today.
Take ChatGPT as an example. While it initially sparked interest, most people only tried it out without sustained motivation to continue using it. Over time, user engagement gradually declined. The reason lies in ChatGPT still being in the early stages of a new technology, with no significant large-scale applications yet visible to the public.
Why did ChatGPT have this explosive opportunity in this round? It was an inevitable outcome of technological progress reaching a certain stage. First, let's review the development of the Industrial Revolution.
① The First, Second, and Third Industrial Revolutions
The origins of the Industrial Revolution trace back to Britain, evolving over a long period before reaching its peak in the United States. This process was essentially a revolution in products and mass production.
The first, second, and third industrial revolutions primarily addressed three aspects: the mass production, mass sales, and mass demand of industrial goods.
② The Fourth and Fifth Industrial Revolutions
We call it the digital revolution. The rise of ChatGPT can be seen as a digital revolution, similar to the Industrial Revolution in its emphasis on scale, but with a key difference: the digital revolution focuses on the virtual domain rather than physical products. Hence, we term it the digital revolution.
The First Wave of the Internet Revolution
This phase was enabled by the advent of computers and software, allowing people to record and store their experiences. In the past, information was recorded on paper and accessed through libraries, which was highly inefficient. However, with the widespread adoption of software and personal computers, individuals could easily document their daily activities and thoughts, marking the beginning of the digital revolution.The Second Wave of the Internet Revolution
The core of this phase lies in the aggregation of all information. Research shows that the key difference between human and animal evolution is that animals stop evolving after reaching a certain level because, in competition, one species cannot surpass another by too large a margin. For example, a lion cannot be ten times faster than a gazelle, nor can a gazelle be ten times faster than a lion—they are locked in a mutual balance.Humans, however, are the result of the co-evolution of technology and culture. Both technology and culture can accumulate infinitely, relying not just on a few exceptional individuals but on the participation of everyone. Every individual's thoughts are recorded, creating an unprecedentedly powerful library of knowledge.
We are currently in the third wave of the internet revolution, where artificial intelligence has propelled the digital revolution into its mature phase. The emergence of ChatGPT is essentially an inevitable outcome of this third wave, building upon the information recording and aggregation from the first two waves. It systematically organizes, analyzes, and synthesizes the accumulated knowledge, enabling a significant leap forward based on humanity's collective intelligence.
From a business perspective, transitioning from offline to online operations is challenging. In recent years, the focus has been on 'migrating data to the cloud,' as digital transformation deepens, requiring businesses to gradually shift their data to cloud platforms. Once online, integrating AI becomes much more straightforward.
Building on cloud-based data, the addition of AI-driven processing is a continuous process. This current wave of AI is particularly advantageous for digitally transformed enterprises, offering sustained benefits.
New technologies typically impact industries in three ways:
First, industry disruption. This refers to technologies that completely transform industries, altering their structures and operational methods.
Second, industry creation. This means new industries emerge under the impetus of technology, which may not have existed before but now rapidly rise due to technological advancements.
The Third Type: Industry Enhancement. In most cases, the impact of technology is realized by enhancing existing industries, especially for leading enterprises, which benefit from technological advancements.
The rise of AI is highly beneficial to various industries, with nearly all sectors standing to gain from this wave of technological transformation. Businesses must focus on two key tasks:
- Continuously upgrading their existing operations to keep pace with the times.
- Building a foundational platform for the new era to support the next generation of innovators.
Innovation is often serendipitous, and the leaders of the new era are typically those who can introduce novel applications. This presents a tremendous opportunity, as anyone could become the next "Bill Gates."
1. Industry Disruption: Traditional Basic Roles Will Be Replaced
We can observe in many fields today that some foundational roles are being replaced by automation and intelligent technologies. Job displacement has become a significant trend in the development of artificial intelligence.
For example, I believe that within the next decade or two, autonomous driving technology will become widespread, replacing a large number of drivers. Only a very few drivers will have the capability to transition into operators within a driving control pool, addressing issues that autonomous systems cannot handle.
2. Emerging Industries: The Rise of Service-Centric New Sectors
Over the next three decades, we will witness the rise of many new industries, with service-oriented businesses flourishing across various sectors. These emerging markets will produce numerous winners, including not only core enterprises but also supporting businesses and partners. These opportunities will depend more on cognitive insights rather than technical barriers.
① Expert Services
Expert services are expensive due to their scarcity, accessible only to a select few. However, with advancements in AI, high-end expert services will no longer be constrained by scarcity. People will easily access various services—whether in autonomous driving, financial planning, education, or other fields—fulfilling their needs for professional knowledge and experience.
These opportunities belong to emerging markets with immense potential. For example, the essence of children's education lies not in excelling in specific subjects but in nurturing their long-term interests and passions, helping them discover something they love for life. The challenge, however, is that this requires sustained tracking and support.
Imagine an intelligent system, such as an AI Agent, that connects with children, identifies their interests through interaction, and provides relevant resources and online courses to support their development while monitoring their progress.
Additionally, it can help parents evaluate whether their child's interests have the potential to develop into a career. Once a child shows interest in something that could potentially become a profession, the system can provide up to 10 years of support for just 365 yuan per year. This represents a huge market, as nearly every child may require such support.
This service not only reduces reliance on traditional schooling but also helps children discover lifelong interests. To implement such a service, a vast ecosystem needs to be built, requiring collaboration from multiple stakeholders and a shift in mindset. Although initial challenges may arise, over time, changing attitudes will accelerate, ultimately forming a massive industry.
② Providing Personalized Services
Despite the significant achievements of the Industrial Revolution, it has failed to fully meet people's demand for services. Unmet needs arise when people cannot find someone to provide a specific service and must instead purchase goods to serve themselves.
For example, if we need to drill a hole in the wall to hang a painting but no one offers this service, we end up buying a power drill to do it ourselves. This scenario is common in daily life—purchasing goods to complete a task, only for those goods to become useless afterward. The Industrial Revolution provided tools for self-service, while AI development emphasizes directly fulfilling individual needs rather than merely supplying products.
From a supply-side perspective, many companies are transitioning from selling products to selling services. They recognize that continuously pushing product upgrades leads to repetitive purchases, which is inefficient from the user's standpoint. Users prioritize the ability to consistently meet their needs, giving rise to subscription-based service models.
In the future, more and more things will adopt this approach. It is even foreseeable that products will merely serve as carriers for services, with users focusing more on the services themselves.
Simultaneously, through continuous demand analysis, services that exceed user expectations will be provided, aiming to understand users better than they understand themselves. Users will no longer need to make one-time purchases but will instead pay small daily or monthly fees for ongoing services that continuously improve.
From the demand side, users seek personalized services rather than generic products or tools. They desire interaction and emotional engagement with service providers, not impersonal objects.
During the Industrial Revolution, meeting personalized demands required more resources and manpower. However, the advent of artificial intelligence has transformed this landscape, making personalized services feasible while reducing the sense of isolation characteristic of the Industrial Revolution era.
3. Industry Enhancement: Leveraging Scalable Services to Expand Advantages
A company abroad called Character.AI is researching various intelligent agents. It would be fascinating if we could aggregate the features and strengths of these agents and enable them to collaborate and complement each other to solve problems. This would mean that service scalability becomes achievable.
When services can be scaled, industry giants emerge. For example, scaling the production of a widely demanded product like automobiles gave rise to companies like Ford, which have long topped the market in terms of valuation.
Even if a company has only held an advantage in a specific field, it can train machines at scale to become experts in various areas, thereby extending its existing advantages globally.
This represents an overall economic uplift. Even if companies do not profit significantly during this process, their exemplary role still drives societal progress.
4. The Golden 30-Year Development Period
If we extend our historical perspective to 30 or 50 years from now, we will find ourselves at a new starting point. The current digital revolution is gradually reaching its peak, and large-scale services are just beginning. The next 30 years will be a golden era for global and societal development.
Technologies like ChatGPT serve as early demonstrations—just the beginning. True giants, akin to companies like BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent), will soon offer a variety of services, including healthcare, education, and personal assistance. Once these services reach sufficient quality, AI will see widespread adoption.
Each new service emerges from a new market, and each new market has enormous potential to contribute to GDP. Although these markets may start small, they will grow rapidly over time, accelerating progress.
Over the next 30 years, we will witness more new industries and fields driving societal development, creating more opportunities for success and reducing wealth inequality.
In the past, multinational corporations dominated everything, but the advent of the internet created a relatively decentralized ecosystem. In the future, a semi-decentralized or semi-integrated ecosystem may emerge, making the relationship between businesses and users more stable. This implies that emerging markets will grow in scale while the size of core companies may shrink.
Giants may emerge in every field, but these giants will be highly interconnected rather than isolated. They will collaborate to form ecosystems, and increasingly, these ecosystems will be activated by artificial intelligence, bringing them to life.
When numerous opportunities arise, wealth inequality tends to diminish because inequality often stems from unequal access to opportunities. The diffusion of technology can restore balance, improve overall efficiency, and disrupt traditional capital dynamics. Innovation can make society fairer, as opportunities for innovation are not constrained by age, class, or race. It encourages young people to actively participate in technological advancements, thereby promoting greater social equity.
Currently, we are in the mature phase of an industrial and digital revolution, with opportunities across all sectors. For young people, active participation and accumulating experience are more important than wealth accumulation at this stage. What truly matters is the advancement of ideas.
ChatGPT has brought the essence of the digital revolution to the masses, heralding a new world—not just technologically, but also in terms of fundamental shifts in thinking and cognition. This will profoundly impact education and may even trigger a disruptive transformation in the field.
Although the internet has significantly improved education by making knowledge accessible to anyone online, mainstream education systems have yet to fully evolve. Traditional educational models have not kept pace with the times.
This phenomenon may be related to some inherent fears in the field of education. The education system should cultivate students who can surpass their teachers, not limit them to levels below their teachers. However, some teachers may feel internal fear due to unfamiliarity with new technologies, worrying that they cannot cope with students surpassing them.
This leads to a paradox: If students can never surpass their teachers, then the education system, and even society as a whole, cannot truly move forward.
The future education system needs to adapt to the advent of the digital revolution, encouraging students to become independent learners, utilizing modern technologies and tools to explore a broader world of knowledge and prepare for the future. This will help shape a more innovative and adaptable learning environment, better meeting the needs of society and individuals.
1. Greater Emphasis on Heuristic Education
The application of ChatGPT in education has great potential, as it can serve as an important tutoring tool for students. Compared to traditional education, ChatGPT has a faster rate of knowledge evolution.
Knowledge can be divided into two types: the first type is relatively stable and does not change frequently. The second type evolves continuously, updating at a pace far exceeding human learning speed.
In this context, students do not need to master knowledge thoroughly but should learn to use tools that help them quickly acquire and apply knowledge. This is the value of tools like ChatGPT.
Schools and universities need to adapt to this change by not only introducing ChatGPT but also teaching students how to collaborate with it, how to ask questions, and how to craft effective prompts.
This educational transformation draws inspiration from Socrates' heuristic teaching method. Socrates did not always know the answers but excelled at guiding students to ask questions and helping them find answers step by step. Now, we need to cultivate students' Socratic questioning skills to better collaborate with tools like ChatGPT.
2. Greater Emphasis on Critical Thinking
When using tools like ChatGPT, there are instances where the output may be nonsensical. While ChatGPT provides high-quality answers 99% of the time, in 1% of cases, it might produce gibberish.
This tests our judgment—we must distinguish between high-quality answers and nonsense. Beyond teaching students questioning skills, we must also educate them on how to evaluate and filter the quality of answers, learning to discern what is good and what is not.
This transformation will undoubtedly revive liberal arts education, breaking the constraints of excessive specialization. Students need critical thinking and comprehensive analytical skills to better understand and address complex issues.
3. Greater Emphasis on Heterogeneous Computing Capabilities
It's no longer just about solving problems directly but about solving them through others, learning to appreciate their solutions. Additionally, we must become versatile, even proposing a new concept called 'human heterogeneous computing capability.'
For example, humans are like foremen, assigning tasks daily to a group of workers—some move bricks, others mix cement, and some build walls. Each worker performs relatively simple tasks with little variation.
Now, the role of the foreman remains human, but the execution of specific tasks is handled by artificial intelligence. We only need to see ourselves as the central processing unit (CPU), with AI systems as our assistants.
Moreover, not every task requires a general-purpose system like ChatGPT. Many tasks are better suited to specialized systems. For instance, some systems focus on image processing, while others specialize in text processing, with further subdivisions like image versus video processing and future 3D system processing.
The successful individuals of the future will need to act like efficient foremen, overseeing tasks holistically and breaking them down into parts that can be delegated to specialized systems. Each specific task will be completed by a system with expertise, while your role is to evaluate their performance, identify the best systems, and organize them to complete the entire task.
The key to success will lie in leveraging machines effectively, maximizing their strengths. Those with heterogeneous computing capabilities—those who can efficiently utilize AI—will own the future.
4. Greater Emphasis on Interests and Passion
The advent of the internet has provided ample opportunities for diligent individuals to stand out. On one hand, exceptional individuals in this era can benefit more people by sharing knowledge, and everyone has the chance to become a renowned educator. On the other hand, students now have access to a wealth of high-quality educational resources online, making knowledge acquisition no longer a scarce commodity.
I believe this presents an opportunity for future educational institutions. Outdated institutions may fade away, while new ones will emerge. The focus of future education will shift from merely imparting knowledge to teaching students how to effectively utilize artificial intelligence. The key is not diligence alone but passion. Education inherently challenges human nature, and only a few highly disciplined individuals can achieve success through sheer effort.
Take fitness and sports, for example. Daily effort may not yield immediate feedback or rewards. Only when one is passionate about something can they remain motivated without external pressure, willingly exploring and learning. Passion sparks curiosity, fosters a positive mindset, and naturally turns learning into an enjoyable experience.
However, current educational methods often strip away the joy of learning, making it dull and tedious, then blaming students for not being as diligent as they are when playing games.
Education should focus on students' interests and intrinsic motivation, helping them explore their passions with enthusiasm and experience the satisfaction of overcoming challenges. Simply solving problems and offering rewards is not true education—this is what truly valuable education should be.
5. Greater Respect for Student Individuality
The current education system is essentially a product of the Industrial Revolution, designed for mass production. Its hallmark is standardization, where anything deviating from the norm is considered substandard.
Future education needs to provide top-tier services by incorporating differentiated content within scalable frameworks. Standardization will become irrelevant, as high-end domains often thrive on differentiation. Leveraging AI to plan and organize learning processes can liberate students from worrying about meeting standardized benchmarks.
Future education should be built upon students' interests, encouraging them to explore uncharted territories. The goal isn't merely for students to surpass their teachers, but to venture into areas their teachers have never encountered. This signifies a shift in the role of education - no longer just about imparting knowledge, but increasingly focused on cultivating students' interests and independent thinking abilities.
6. Greater Emphasis on Nurturing Curiosity
A defining characteristic that sets humans apart from other mammals is our enduring curiosity in adulthood. Regardless of age, we remain perpetual knowledge-seeking juveniles. Our generation is particularly fortunate as we have the opportunity for lifelong learning, exploring new domains, and deriving joy from the process.
The core driver of lifelong learning is not externally imposed tasks but intrinsic curiosity. If a person is interested in learning, providing relevant resources will lead them to explore deeply and eventually become an expert. Experts are nurtured through resources, not formed by coercion or pressure—this is the fundamental difference.
Truly outstanding teachers can observe students' interests and understand how to provide resources so they can autonomously become experts. Future education will require the support of intelligent systems like ChatGPT, but it also needs excellent developers to ensure the quality of the system's answers.
7. Greater Emphasis on Socialized Learning
When pursuing cutting-edge knowledge that teachers cannot provide, socialized learning becomes crucial. Chris Anderson, the head of TED, introduced the concept of 'crowd-accelerated innovation.' Many frontier fields of knowledge often appear in semi-finished forms, and through group discussions, new ideas emerge. This socialized learning model can lead to rapid progress and innovation.
Therefore, education should transcend traditional campuses and build an open, future-oriented learning model. Students should be placed at the center, helping them discover their interests, providing resources, and planning long-term. Socialized learning, exploration, and personalized teaching methods should be adopted, relying on AI to improve efficiency. The emergence of AI technology will disrupt traditional education models and create entirely new educational institutions.
For ordinary people, the awareness of active learning will be crucial in the coming years. On the foundation of lifelong learning, it is essential to change learning habits while continuously deriving positive reinforcement from the learning process. What is learned must be useful and valuable to maintain interest and sustain learning; otherwise, it will be meaningless.
1. Find Your Interest and Invest Effort
First, you need to identify the fields that interest you or find something you are willing to invest time and effort into learning.
2. Self-Directed Learning to Overcome Laziness
Next, focus on your interests and leverage modern tools and technologies, such as ChatGPT, for self-directed, intelligent learning. Humans have always used technology to refine themselves, and artificial intelligence will accelerate this process.
We can use AI to overcome our laziness. Take health as an example—maintaining health also requires overcoming laziness, as it involves regular exercise.
There are two types of laziness: physical laziness, where one avoids exertion and hard work, and mental laziness, where one avoids thinking and change. Mental laziness is often stronger than physical laziness.
We can rely on AI experts to guide us, telling us how to exercise daily without needing to think for ourselves. This approach overcomes both physical and mental laziness, as it eliminates the need for personal decision-making—simply follow the instructions.
The same principle applies to education. By leveraging AI, we can sustain long-term learning and persistence, turning interests into careers. While AI isn't yet fully capable of this, maintaining intrinsic motivation for hobbies is crucial for personal growth.
3. Learn to Ask Questions and Train the Model
Finally, after identifying your interests, you can use AI to become an expert in that field. How? Engage with ChatGPT using the Socratic method for self-directed learning.
ChatGPT is a synthesis of human experience and an evolving tool. Through interaction, you can explore various techniques and deepen your expertise. It’s honest—ask it anything, refine your questions over multiple exchanges, and master any subject you choose.
Second, ChatGPT can serve as both an advisor and a teacher, complementing your efforts.
Third, as you accumulate sufficient professional knowledge, you can refine ChatGPT's answers by setting constraints on response ranges, effectively training it in reverse to ensure more accurate outputs. This mutual enhancement will help the machine become an expert while fostering your continuous growth.
Fourth, once you become an expert in a field with ChatGPT's assistance, consider transforming your specialized skills into services or products to launch a new career or position yourself as a highly sought-after talent in the market.
In today's market, individuals who can harness machine learning capabilities are exceptionally rare. Your value lies in achieving human-machine synergy, combining professional experience with advanced technology—a trend that defines the future. Possessing this ability will set you apart in your career, offering abundant opportunities and significant value, whether you choose entrepreneurship or not.
In summary, the key is proactive learning—enhancing your knowledge and skills through targeted study and the application of cutting-edge tools. Additionally, developing resource allocation abilities, building professional networks, and fostering partnerships will amplify your societal impact and value creation.
I believe China's future contributions to knowledge will far surpass those of Western nations, as we tread different paths. Our experiences hold greater reference value and significance compared to the West.
We should actively participate in international exchanges, gather a group of like-minded individuals, and jointly explore and disseminate cutting-edge knowledge to promote the development of knowledge and technology in China and around the world. With the assistance of AI, this vision is expected to be realized more quickly.