Apple's Next Big Move: The Highlight of the New Siri Might Be This
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On January 29, according to media reports from TechWeb, a long-time Apple analyst stated that iOS 18 could become the largest software update in iPhone history. The analyst mentioned that Apple plans to integrate new AI features into iOS 18, including an upgraded Siri capable of leveraging a new AI system incorporating large language model technology, enabling natural conversations for the first time and providing users with personalized experiences.
Additionally, on January 28, Phone China reported that Apple released the latest iOS 17.4 Developer Preview Beta update, where some developers discovered code related to large language model technology.
Guoxin Securities pointed out that Apple has long been planning its AI direction. Currently, the Apple A17 chip delivers AI computing power of 35 TOPS per second. Apple has integrated NPU modules into almost all its self-developed chips, from the M1 and M2 series chips used in Mac computers to the A-series chips in iPhones, without exception.
This also serves as the foundational technical support for the efficient implementation of AI features across Apple's product lineup. Its comprehensive layout in chip AI computing power and AI-embedded functionalities gives the final terminal products the potential to exceed expectations.
Furthermore, Guohai Securities noted that the deployment of large models on the device side primarily benefits hardware (e.g., NPU) design and manufacturing companies, large model providers, and terminal device manufacturers.
Among these, terminal device manufacturers may be the core players. Acting as intermediaries, they connect models, hardware, and end-users, earning both price differentials and service fees. As a result, terminal device manufacturers could end the era where large model providers dominated the business model through cloud-based API interfaces or ChatGPT-like applications, becoming a new force competing for traffic entry points. Founder Securities stated that a significant number of smartphone users do not utilize voice assistants. While smartphone penetration rates are already high, the adoption of voice assistants remains noticeably low. Despite major domestic and international smartphones being equipped with intelligent voice assistants, their functionalities remain relatively basic, which may be a key reason for their underutilization.
For smart speakers, as a typical standalone carrier for voice interaction in smart homes, their features are relatively comprehensive. However, many limitations during usage still leave smart speakers in an awkward position. With applications like ChatGPT, there is potential to drive substantial development in smart speakers.
Regarding companies, Founder Securities indicated that terminal products and supply chain companies are likely to benefit from product upgrades and increased shipments. 1) Speakers: Skyworth Digital (smart terminals), Edifier (speaker manufacturers); 2) Phones: Transsion Holdings (mobile products, voice assistants).
Canalys' latest forecast data shows that in 2024, less than 5% of total smartphone shipments will be AI phones, yet this still translates to 60 million units. In comparison, AI PC shipments for the same year are projected at only 53 million units.
AI Empowering Consumer Electronics Trend Becomes Clear
The consumer electronics industry (hereafter referred to as "consumer electronics"), driven by innovation, is highly sensitive to cutting-edge technologies and shifts in consumer preferences, making it a key indicator of market trends. Currently, the trend of AI empowering consumer electronics is clear, with valuation restructuring logic gradually being validated, drawing attention to the inflection point in the consumer electronics sector. The domestic large model landscape is thriving, with smartphone manufacturers joining the competition. On November 16, OPPO announced at its developer conference that its self-developed ColorOS has surpassed 600 million monthly active users globally, and officially launched its self-trained large model, AndesGPT.
Currently, Honor, Huawei, Xiaomi, and vivo have all invested significant resources in the large model field, each developing different research and deployment strategies to form their own ecosystems.
This year, multiple smartphone giants have reported successfully running large models on their devices. Earlier this month, vivo released five large model matrices and launched the world's first smartphone capable of running a 10-billion-parameter large model on November 13. Xiaomi founder Lei Jun recently stated that Xiaomi's latest 1.3-billion-parameter AI large model has been successfully run locally on smartphones. In August, Huawei's HarmonyOS 4 also announced integration with large models. Companies are accelerating their large model deployments in a quiet competition.
AI Smartphones Are the Inevitable Trend in the Industry
IDC predicts that by 2026, nearly 50% of terminal device processors in the Chinese market will feature AI engines, indicating vast potential for AI implementation. AI smartphones are the inevitable trend in the industry. Everbright Securities believes that AI smartphones and other smart terminals could become the direction of future transformation in the consumer electronics industry.
It is understood that smartphone manufacturers are adopting two main approaches to large model deployment: Honor and Xiaomi focus on on-device computing, while vivo pursues both on-device and cloud-based paths. With tech giants frequently releasing new products and smartphones selling well, the global consumer electronics industry is entering a recovery cycle. The consumer electronics industry is a crucial component of the electronic information sector and one of the nation's strategic development industries. With technological progress and the diversification of consumer demands, the industry is characterized by rapid development and vibrant innovation, making significant contributions to national economic growth and societal advancement.
The consumer electronics industry encompasses a wide range of product categories, including smartphones, tablets, televisions, audio devices, and gaming consoles. These products not only meet the daily needs of consumers but also represent the latest trends in fashion and technology.
In developed countries, consumer electronics have become an indispensable part of daily life. Meanwhile, in developing nations, the market for consumer electronics is experiencing rapid growth due to economic development and rising consumer purchasing power.
The upstream segment of the consumer electronics industry primarily includes raw materials such as chips, semiconductors, sensors, displays, non-ferrous metals, and plastics. The midstream segment focuses on the production of consumer electronics, including mobile phones, tablets, laptops, video players, and wearable devices. The downstream segment involves distribution through online and offline sales channels, ultimately reaching end consumers.
Consumer electronics have become a vital part of modern life, with sales continuously increasing. Mobile phones, digital products, home appliances, and their accessories remain the fastest-growing categories in the consumer electronics market. Products like tablets and laptops are also maturing rapidly, while the emergence and development of smart wearable devices mark a new pinnacle in the intelligence of consumer electronics.
According to the 2023 Consumer Electronics Industry Trends White Paper released by Tmall, the primary consumer demographic for electronics in China is aged 20-40, accounting for over 80% of the market, with the post-95 generation making up more than 30%. Small household appliances, as a representative category of vertical products, feature low unit prices and exhibit certain fast-moving consumer goods characteristics. They are easily "seeded" for specific needs and scenarios, making them a new track in the consumer electronics industry with significant potential for explosive growth.
China ranks first globally in both production and sales of consumer electronics, serving as a crucial manufacturing base for consumer electronics products worldwide. Most major global electronics manufacturers and OEMs have established production bases and R&D centers in China.
Recently, multiple consumer electronics companies have reported an increase in product shipments.
Meanwhile, with the dense launch of new models from brands like Huawei, Apple, and Xiaomi, the consumer electronics industry has also seen a rising trend in the secondary market. Data shows that as of November 13, the consumer electronics index has risen by 1.34% within the month. Stocks within the sector, such as OFILM, Tianlong Co., Chaoyang Technology, and RIM, have even hit the daily limit up multiple times.
According to Canalys, smartphone manufacturers improved their inventory conditions in Q2 2023 and launched new products in Q3. Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2023 saw a narrowed year-on-year decline of 1%. For PCs, global shipments in Q3 fell by 7% year-on-year but increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter.
The signs of recovery in downstream markets, including smartphones, have also been confirmed in the Q3 2023 financial reports of many listed companies in the consumer electronics industry. According to the recently released Q3 2023 financial reports from MediaTek and Qualcomm, both companies exceeded expectations. In Q3 2023, MediaTek's mobile business revenue increased by 19% quarter-over-quarter, while Qualcomm, the leader in mobile chips, surpassed its previous guidance for mobile business revenue. Both mobile chip manufacturers expect the growth rate of mobile business revenue to further accelerate in Q4 2023.
With the continuous expansion of emerging markets such as 5G communications, sensors, wearable devices, the Internet of Things (IoT), industrial robots, VR/AR, and artificial intelligence, the demand for chip performance, technology, and energy efficiency will continue to drive the development of ultra-low-power AI processor chips.
Wearable devices like smartwatches (including children's watches) and smart bands, health and fitness-oriented TWS wireless Bluetooth earbuds, smart home devices like intelligent toilets, and smart elderly care equipment, as well as intelligent travel systems such as smart car cockpits, are all poised for better development opportunities.
Consumer electronics industry research reports can help investors analyze the current market situation of the industry, make predictions about the industry's prospects for investment decisions, uncover investment value, and provide recommendations on investment strategies and marketing strategies.