Current Status of AI Industry Planning and Investment Market Outlook
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At this year's Wuzhen Summit, participants generally agreed that with the rapid evolution and iteration of computing power as the foundation, 2023 is a milestone year for the development of artificial intelligence. Generative AI has empowered various industries, and its future potential is beginning to emerge. AI is leading a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, with large language models offering a glimpse of the dawn of general artificial intelligence.
Leveraging its proprietary HCC (High-Performance Computing Cluster), Tencent's Hunyuan large model boasts strong Chinese creative capabilities, logical reasoning in complex contexts, and reliable task execution. Alibaba Cloud revealed plans to open-source a 72-billion-parameter large model, aiming to build a more robust infrastructure foundation and a more open and thriving AI ecosystem. Currently, half of China's AI large models run on Alibaba Cloud.
Current Status of AI Industry Planning and Investment Market Outlook
In October 2023, six departments issued the High-Quality Development Action Plan for Computing Power Infrastructure, proposing that by 2025, GPU-based intelligent computing power should account for 35% (105 EFLOPS). The current domestic intelligent computing power stands at 41 EFLOPS, with an expected CAGR of 36.8% from 2022 to 2025. Intelligent computing power in the AIGC field is primarily used for model training, inference, and optimization, with the proportion of inference resources (long-term operation-oriented) expected to rise to 60%. The era of large models has seen rapid growth in training parameters.
With ChatGPT leading the AIGC landscape, AIGC has reached a turning point in technology and applications. It is estimated that by 2026, 80% of enterprises will use AIGC products. Against this backdrop, GPU computing power leasing is no longer a novel concept. A review of third-party data center vendors that have grown rapidly in the IDC sector reveals similarities in development models with computing power leasing, characterized by high visibility and rapid growth. As demand for AI servers and AI chips rises in tandem, AI server shipments (including those equipped with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs) are expected to reach nearly 1.2 million units in 2023, a 38.4% year-on-year increase, accounting for nearly 9% of total server shipments. By 2026, this share is projected to rise to 15%. The institution has also revised its 2022-2026 CAGR for AI server shipments to 22%, while AI chip shipments are expected to grow by 46% in 2023.
The AI wave is rising, with computing power and other AI hardware forming the core foundation. Cloud computing hardware will become the key infrastructure for the new AI wave, with GPUs, AI servers, high-speed switches, and 800G optical modules maintaining rapid growth in the future. Robotics, autonomous driving, and XR will be the primary application areas for AI. In robotics, Tesla's Optimus has opened up vast possibilities for "AI + robotics." In autonomous driving, pure vision solutions have become mainstream, while multi-sensor solutions are the trend. In MR, Apple's Vision Pro marks the beginning of the AI era in virtual worlds.
AI Investment Market Outlook
AI is still in the early stages of industrialization, with broad prospects, where computing power leads the way, and application implementation serves as the core anchor. Looking ahead to 2024, the AI computing power chain is entering a phase of accelerated performance, with a recommended focus on optical modules benefiting from U.S. AI computing power. Optical modules are currently in an 800G upgrade cycle, coupled with incremental AI demand, leading customers continue to increase orders. Recommended companies to watch include Zhongji Innolight and New H3C.
Domestic intelligent computing center construction and the rise of domestic AI computing power benefit AI servers, switches, and liquid cooling systems. The accelerated deployment of intelligent computing centers drives rapid growth in computing, networking, and storage demand. AI servers are in short supply, and intelligent computing center networks are evolving toward ultra-large scale, ultra-high bandwidth, ultra-low latency, and ultra-high reliability, accelerating the upgrade and demand growth of network equipment. Recommended companies to watch include Unisplendour and Ruijie Networks.
With the widespread adoption of AI and other technologies, the demand for computing power in data centers continues to rise, leading to increased power consumption of server chips and higher heat flux density in racks. Traditional air cooling can no longer meet the cooling requirements of modern data centers. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly issued the High-Quality Development Action Plan for Computing Power Infrastructure, requiring accelerated green transformation and sustainable development of computing centers. In response, industrial thermal management areas such as energy storage systems, charging piles, and data servers demand upgrades in cooling performance—smaller, lighter, more efficient, and more energy-saving.
Industrial Internet participated in formulating the Guidance Specification for Liquid Cooling Technology and Engineering Practices in Edge Data Centers and Servers, serving as an engineering design guide for liquid cooling systems in edge servers. It deepens technical specifications for liquid cooling in edge servers and provides practical guidance for deploying liquid-cooled edge computing systems in edge environments.
In a highly competitive market, the ability of enterprises and investors to make timely and effective decisions is key to success. The AI industry report by China Research Network provides a detailed analysis of the development status, competitive landscape, and market supply-demand dynamics of China's AI industry. It also examines opportunities and challenges from policy, economic, social, and technological perspectives. The report reveals potential market demands and opportunities, offering strategic investors accurate market intelligence and decision-making support. It also serves as a valuable reference for government departments.